Two items relevant to long COVID

One of the tricky issues in studying in long COVID is: how widely do researchers cast their net? Initial reports acknowledged that people who were hospitalized and in intensive care may take a while to get back on their feet. But the number of people who had SARS-CoV-2 infections and were NOT hospitalized, yet experienced lingering symptoms, may be greater. A recent report from the United Kingdom, published in PLOS Medicine, studied more than Read more

All your environmental chemicals belong in the exposome

Emory team wanted to develop a standard low-volume approach that would avoid multiple processing steps, which can lead to loss of material, variable recovery, and the potential for Read more

Signature of success for an HIV vaccine?

Efforts to produce a vaccine against HIV/AIDS have been sustained for more than a decade by a single, modest success: the RV144 clinical trial in Thailand, whose results were reported in 2009. Now Emory, Harvard and Case Western Reserve scientists have identified a gene activity signature that may explain why the vaccine regimen in the RV144 study was protective in some individuals, while other HIV vaccine studies were not successful. The researchers think that this signature, Read more

Emory Critical Care Center

Life-saving predictions from the ICU

It’s similar to the “precogs” who predict crime in the movie Minority Report, but for sepsis, the deadly response to infection. That’s how Tim Buchman, director of the Emory Critical Care Center, described an emerging effort to detect and ward off sepsis in ICU patients hours before it starts to make their vital signs go haywire.

As landmark clinical studies have documented, every hour of delay in giving someone with sepsis antibiotics increases their risk of mortality. So detecting sepsis as early as possible could save lives. Many hospitals have developed “sniffer” systems that monitor patients for sepsis risk. See our 2016 feature in Emory Medicine for more details.

What Shamim Nemati and his colleagues, including bioinformatics chair Gari Clifford, have been exploring is more sophisticated. A vastly simplified way to summarize it is: if someone has a disorderly heart rate and blood pressure, those changes can be an early indicator of sepsis.* It requires continuous monitoring – not just once an hour. But in the ICU, this can be done. The algorithm uses 65 indicators, such as respiration, temperature, and oxygen levels — not only heart rate and blood pressure. See below.

Example patient graph. Green = SOFA score. Purple = Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert (AISE) score. Red = official definition of sepsis. Blue = antibiotics. Black + red = cultures.    Around 4 pm on December 20, roughly 8 hr prior to any change in the SOFA score, the AISE score starts to increase. The top contributing factors were slight changes in heart rate, respiration, and temperature, given that the patient had surgery in the past 12hr with a contaminated wound and was on a mechanical ventilator. Close to midnight on December 21, other factors show abnormal changes. Five hours later, the patient met the Sepsis-3 definition of sepsis.

As recently published in the journal Critical Care Medicine, Nemati’s algorithm can predict sepsis onset – with some false alarms – 4, 8 even 12 hours ahead of time. No predictor is going to be perfect, Nemati says. The paper lays out specificity, sensitivity and accuracy under various timelines. They get to an AUROC (area under receiving operating characteristic) performance of 0.83 to 0.85, which this explainer web site rates as good (B), and is better than any other previous sepsis predictor. Read more

Posted on by Quinn Eastman in Heart, Immunology Leave a comment